When I first started looking at these teams, they seemed pretty closely matched over the course of the season:

Full Season
Margin of Victory: Dallas, 7pts; Philly 5.7pts
Pass Yds: Dallas, 268(6th), Philly, 256(10th)
Rush Yds: Dallas, 131(7th), Philly, 102(22nd)
Pass Yds Allowed: Dallas, 225(20th), Philly, 216(17th)
Rush Yds Allowed: Dallas, 91(4th), Philly, 104(9th)
TakeAways: Dallas, +1(15th), Philly, +15(2nd)

But when I look at the last six games for each team, Dallas is clearly playing better:

Last Six Games
Margin of Victory: Dallas, 9.17pts; Philly 5pts
Pass Yds: Dallas, 298: Philly, 269
Rush Yds: Dallas, 130: Philly, 93
Pass Yds Allowed: Dallas: 218, Philly, 242
Rush Yds Allowed: Dallas: 74, Philly, 100
TakeAways: Dallas, +6: Philly, +9

Bottom Line…
But any way you slice it, this game looks to be close. Because of that, I think the game will come down to who plays the best on this given day. So then what do we have to go on? Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb’s playoff experience and success (5 NFC Championship games, 1 Superbowl). Tony Romo? Where did he go? Hey Wade Phillips, have you seen your quarterback? Hello? Wade?

Eagles 24, Cowboys 20.

The Bengals live and die by OchoCinco.
The Bengals passing attack revolves around Chad OchoCinco. He has twice as many yards (1251) as any other Bengals receiver, and almost twice as many touchdowns (9). And Cincinnati scores 70% (21) of their touchdowns through the air.

Darelle Revis will shut down 85.
Revis’s last six meaningful games (opponent’s lead receiver/yards): Roddy White/33; Antonio Bryant/22; Terrell Owens/31; Steve Smith (Car)/5; Randy Moss/34; Mike Simms-Walker/49. Average: 29 yards. Sorry OchoCinco, but your team’s counting on you to dominate the most dominant defensive player in the league. It’s not gonna happen.

The Bengals will turn to Cedric Benson… and fail.
The Jets’ last five meaningful games (opponent’s lead rusher/yards): Jason Snelling/59; Cadillac Williams/14; Fred Jackson/31; DeAngelo Williams/40; Maroney/77. Average: 44.2. There goes that option.

The Jets will pound the rock. Against a pretty hard wall.
New York’s running game is by far the best in the league. In their last six meaningful games: 99/Atl; 175/TB; 249/Buf; 139/Car; 104/NE; 110/Jac.That’s an average of 146 yds/game. That’s good, but down from their season average of 172 per game. But the Bengals are pretty good against the run (7th for yds against, but only 14th for TDs against).

If turnovers decide the game, the Jet’s might be in trouble.
The Bengals could capitalize on Mark Sanchez’s interception habit. He’s tied for second in the league with 20 INTs, and he’s thrown 10 in his last six meaningful games. The Bengals are in the top 10 for INTs. And New York is –4 in take-aways in their last six meaningful games, while the Bengals are even.

Bottom Line…
New York will run, run, run. Maybe throw an interception. And score three touchdowns on the ground. While Cincinnati will be stuffed, stuffed, and stuffed. Then, in a frustrated panic, they’ll throw to… Laverneus Coles? Did I mention that the Jets, while dedicating Revis to OchoCinco, will still have Kerry Rhodes to cover anyone else who’s left? No one, and I mean no one, will be open.

Jets 24, Bengals 6.

My friend Caroline with a cautionary tale about personal trainers: